At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins faced a disheartening setback, squandering a three-run lead to succumb 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. The decisive blow came in the bottom of the eighth inning, when Griffin Jax gave up a two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo, sealing their fate.
The loss is emblematic of a troubling trend for the Twins, who have dropped 18 of their last 27 games. This stretch has seen them struggle on both sides of the ball, raising pressing concerns as they cling to the third AL wild-card spot with a narrowing lead of just 1 1/2 games.
Presently, the Twins' postseason aspirations are dimming. As of September 5, FanGraphs pegged their postseason odds at 95.4%, but recent performances have dragged that figure down to 76.4%. A significant contributor to their woes has been an anemic offense, with the team failing to score more than three runs in 12 of their last 27 outings. Over this period, they are hitting a meager .236, accompanied by a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. Surprisingly, when the bases are empty, the Twins' batting average drops to .272, ranking them the fourth worst in the league in such scenarios.
Manager Rocco Baldelli succinctly captures the urgency now facing his team: "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
Bullpen and Rotation Troubles
Compounding their offensive struggles, the Twins' pitching has faltered. Initially, the bullpen showcased promise, holding a 3.84 ERA and ranking tenth in the league in win probability added during the first 123 games. However, the last 27 games have seen a precipitous decline, with the bullpen posting a 5.47 ERA and a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added.
Griffin Jax, speaking to the emotional toll, said, "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff."
The starting rotation hasn't fared much better, posting a 6.07 ERA during this critical stretch and averaging only 4.38 innings per start. The Twins have played 17 games in the last 18 days, a grueling schedule that has undoubtedly tested their endurance and depth.
Adding to their challenges, the Twins have often found themselves in competitive positions only to fall short. They had the lead in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses and were tied in the seventh inning or later on two other occasions. Baldelli voiced the team's frustration: "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together."
Key Players and Tiebreakers
On a brighter note, Max Kepler is expected to return, potentially providing a much-needed spark. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have also shown glimmers of effectiveness, going a combined 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month.
The Twins have also been proactive in tweaking their roster, recently claiming lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Derek Falvey outlined their strategic thinking behind the acquisition: "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
Despite their current slump, the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over both the Detroit Tigers and the Seattle Mariners. The Tigers, who have surged with a 23-10 record in their last 33 games, and the Mariners are both two games behind the Twins in the standings.
Moving forward, the path to the postseason will require the Twins to find consistency and resilience. Baldelli aptly summed up the team's resolve: "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this."
Indeed, how the Twins respond to this critical juncture will determine their postseason fate, with every game now carrying heightened significance.