The Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs are set for an afternoon showdown at Wrigley Field, with the first pitch scheduled for 2:20 PM ET. The Diamondbacks, slight favorites at -106, will be looking to continue their recent success on the road and tighten the gap in the NL West standings.
Pitching Matchup
On the mound for the Cubs is Justin Steele, who has shown impressive form this season. Making his 15th start, Steele sports a 2-3 record with a notable 2.71 ERA. He has delivered eight quality starts, including a stellar performance in his most recent outing where he pitched seven scoreless innings. While his home ERA stands at 3.16, his ability to perform both at home and on the road (2.96 ERA away) gives the Cubs a solid foundation for today's game. Steele is projected to have six strikeouts and, importantly, is anticipated to concede fewer runs than his counterpart.
Ryne Nelson will take the mound for the Diamondbacks. Nelson holds a 6-6 record with a 4.99 ERA and a WHIP of 1.42. Despite allowing a higher batting average against (.296), Nelson has been reliable in his recent starts, not surrendering more than three earned runs in six straight outings. His steady hand has contributed significantly to the Diamondbacks' performances, especially in away games, where they have a 4-1 record in their last five matchups.
Diamondbacks' Drive
Arizona currently boasts a 49-48 overall record and sits second in the NL West, trailing the Dodgers by seven games. The Diamondbacks have shown resilience and firepower, averaging five runs per game – the second-best mark in the MLB. Key players contributing to this robust offense include Christian Walker, with 22 homers, and Ketel Marte, with 19 homers. The team’s recent performances indicate a strong road form, having won two straight away games and holding a 4-1 run line record in their last five away matchups.
However, the Diamondbacks are coming off a staggering 8-7 loss to the Blue Jays, a game in which they squandered a seven-run lead. Despite this setback, the Diamondbacks have shown the ability to bounce back rapidly, as indicated by their overall run line record matching their win-loss record at 49-48 and their tendency for high-scoring games (9.8 runs average). Their over/under record stands at 52-42, with a significant majority (84.5%) of their games surpassing the 7.5 run line.
Cubs' Comeback
The Cubs, with a 47-51 record, find themselves fifth in the NL Central, 8.5 games behind the Brewers. Despite their lower standing, the Cubs have been in good form recently, posting a 7-3 record in their last ten games and a 4-1 record in their last five home contests. The Cubs have displayed tenacity as home underdogs, with a 9-5 record in such situations this year.
Offensively, the Cubs are averaging 4.2 runs per game, with a team batting average of .235. Players like Nico Hoerner, hitting .378 over his last nine games, and Christopher Morel, with three homers in his last eight games, have been key contributors. Furthermore, in games where the over/under line is set at 7.5, the Cubs hold a 12-10 record, with 67.3% of their games exceeding this line.
Game Expectations
Both teams are riding three-game over streaks, pointing to a potentially high-scoring affair today. The game’s over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, a figure that has seen Arizona holding a 6-4 record when set. As the Diamondbacks aim for a narrow victory, projected at 5-4, the tension is palpable with both teams fully capable of pushing past the set run line.
Overall, this matchup promises to be a closely contested battle, with strong pitching from Justin Steele likely being a decisive factor against a Diamondbacks team that has shown both high-scoring potential and resilience in recent road games. Baseball fans can expect an engaging and competitive game as both teams strive to secure a crucial mid-season victory.